What the closing line is
Sportsbooks keep moving a line until the game starts, as money and information arrive. The last number before tip is the closing line. Because it reflects everything the market learned along the way, it's the best public estimate of a game's true price.
Measuring CLV in points
For spreads and totals, CLV is usually measured in points. Illustrative example: you bet Over 147.5 and the total closes at 149.5. The market moved toward your side, so you got +2 points of CLV: you bought the over two points cheaper than the closing price. Had it closed at 146.5, you'd have −1 point.
For a spread the same logic applies to the side you took: taking a team at +6.5 when it closes at +4.5 is +2 points of CLV, because the market ended up rating that team better than your number assumed.
Measuring CLV in price
Lines also move in price, not just points (−110 to −120, say). Converting both prices to implied probability, and removing the bookmaker's margin, gives a CLV in percentage terms. The CLV calculator does the conversion for you.
Why it matters more than wins
A single game is decided by bounces, fouls and free throws. Over a few dozen bets, luck can easily outweigh skill in either direction. CLV strips most of that luck out: if your numbers are consistently better than where the market closes, your prices are better than the market's, whatever the scoreboard said this week.
What CLV can't tell you
- It needs a big sample. A handful of bets with positive CLV proves little.
- It doesn't guarantee profit. You can beat the close and still lose a stretch of bets.
- It depends on getting the number. CLV on a line you couldn't actually bet isn't real.
That's why we publish CLV next to every graded pick on the public record, good weeks and bad.