Closing-line value calculator
Enter the number you bet and the number it closed at. You'll see how many points you beat the close by and what that's worth in implied probability, the best long-run test of whether a bettor's numbers are good.
The total.
American odds, e.g. -110 or +120.
The final number before tip, same side.
Your side's closing price.
Add it to strip the vig from the close and compare against the market's fair price.
Positive CLV: you got a better number than the market's final price. Do that consistently and the results tend to follow.
The line moved, so the price comparison is at different numbers: points of line value are the main measure here.
Runs entirely in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere. For information only: not betting advice. 21+.
How CLV is calculated
Line CLV is the difference between the number you bet and the closing number, from your side. On a spread, more points is better: +3.5 against a +2.5 close is +1 point. On a total, an over wants a lower number and an under wants a higher one: OVER 150.5 against a 157.5 close is +7 points.
Price CLV compares implied probabilities. Your break-even win rate at your price is set against the closing probability of your side. With both closing prices, the vig is removed first, so you're measured against the market's fair price. If you bet +120 (45.5% break-even) and your side closed at a fair 51%, you beat the close by about 5.5 percentage points.
Using CLV well
- Log the closing number for every bet, not just the winners.
- Judge CLV over a large sample. One bet is noise; hundreds are a signal.
- Compare like with like. Spreads, totals and second-half lines close differently.
- Use the close from a sharp, liquid market when you can.
Questions
What is closing-line value (CLV)?
CLV compares the line and price you bet with the final line and price before the game starts. If you bet OVER 150.5 and it closed at 157.5, you beat the close by 7 points. The closing number is the market's most informed price, so consistently beating it is strong evidence that your numbers are better than the market's.
Why does CLV matter more than my win-loss record?
Results over a few hundred bets are dominated by variance: a good bettor can lose for weeks and a bad one can run hot. CLV is measured on every bet regardless of the final score, so it stabilises much faster and tells you whether you're getting good numbers.
Should I remove the vig from the closing price?
If you know both sides of the closing market, yes. Removing the vig gives the market's fair probability for your side, which is the cleanest comparison. With only one side, the calculator uses the closing price as posted, which slightly understates your CLV.
What's a good CLV?
Any consistent positive CLV is good; most bettors lose to the close. Track it across many bets rather than judging a single one, and compare like with like: totals and spreads move differently.
Does positive CLV guarantee a profit?
No. It's evidence of an edge, not a promise. Short-run results can still be negative, and past results never guarantee future ones.
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