Market Line
Learn · variance

Losing streaks are part of betting. Even good betting.

A bettor who wins more often than break-even still loses a lot of individual bets, and those losses don't arrive evenly. Here is the math, with illustrative win rates, so a bad week looks like what it usually is.

How often a bad stretch happens

Each example asks a simple question: if every bet has the same chance of winning, how likely is a stretch at least this bad? The win rates are illustrative, not a forecast for any service, including ours.

Size for the bad stretch

A unit of 1% to 2% of your bankroll means even a long losing run costs a slice of it, not all of it. Size so the worst plausible stretch is one you can live with.

Judge on a big sample

Ten or twenty bets mostly measure luck. Hundreds of bets, and how often your number beats the closing line, say far more about whether an approach holds up.

Past results aren't a promise

No streak is ever "owed" a correction. Each bet is its own event, a losing run can continue, and no one can tell you when it ends. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Set limits that fit your budget. If betting stops being fun, take a break: call or text 1-800-MY-RESET for free, confidential help.